The dangers of winning for novices

If you entered the market for the first time and luck is magically on your side, that ain’t a good sign at all. 

 Do you wanna know why? 

The answer is quite simple: the drive steers you and you ain’t skilled enough yet to control your emotions. 

no nerve trading

Having decided to go all in you unexpectedly win and multiply your deposit. It doesn’t really matter the way it happened: whether you managed to jump off with cash during the pump or got lucky to ride a wave on some random altcoin that has a hunting dog as its mascot. 

What does matter is that you got lucky with that very thing known to experienced traders as the feeling of freedom and creative self-expression. But the thing is you don’t have immunity from feeling omnipotent yet and that can cause you trouble. 

One doesn’t have to be an Oracle to predict the course of events. Encouraged by your own success, you are gonna decide that it’s a trend and follow the proven pattern. (faith in the law of small numbers gonna play a dirty trick with you).

When the pattern fails (which might not happen as well), and you end up flushing everything you earned down the toilet, you will have three options:

  • try to win back at any cost on the same coin, but use a different strategy;
  • try the same pattern on another altcoin;
  • become disillusioned with trading and leave the market, never to return.

To be honest, all three options sound like a complete bummer. 

However, no. The first two can get even worse if you choose to follow the recommendations of “experienced traders” and keep track of all the crypto news.

This happens because you don’t know the basic rules of the financial markets yet.

Rules for the newcomer to the crypto market

  1. All assets are unpredictable. Thus, anything can happen to them at any time. Even the most detailed analytics is not a heal-all and does not eliminate risks.
  1. To make money, it is not necessary to know exactly what will happen in the market in the near future.
  1. Every success or failure is unique and unrepeatable.
  1. The result depends more on the way you think and your attitude to trading than on the behavior of market makers.
  1. Price is driven by people, not trading patterns.  It is impossible to foresee all the emotional factors influencing their actions in the market.
  1. There is always a gap between forecast and reality, which leads to emotional burnout of the trader.
  1. Success is in maintaining stability. This is a state of consciousness, not the size of the deposit.

This will surely come as a surprise to you. Because the way you see it, you need to focus on technical and fundamental analysis, keep up with the news, educate yourself via YouTube or any platform of your choice and listen to the opinions of knowledgeable people on Telegram. Yeah, sure.

And please, look carefully around! You will see crowds of experts, but very few successful traders.  And all because it is easier to make money on the fear and greed of novices than to bring one’s own brain into a state of balance.

You can be a confident analyst, but a useless trader.  On the stock exchange, you won’t get extra thumbs up if you are an innate workaholic with high intelligence. Only staying calm, focused and disciplined will help. This was very well shown by the “Prince of the Pit” Richard Dennis, who decided to grow traders like turtles on farms.

If you are trying to hack a system that has no logic, you will lose. The system will grind you and spit you out.  And the more you get hung up on finding patterns, the faster it will happen. The financial asset market perfectly demonstrates the “Monte Carlo fallacy”. It demonstrates that if a pattern fails a few times it does not necessarily mean it’s a bad thing. It may as well work. The result does not depend on your experience. Tails can fall out 9 times out of 10. This is a matter of chance, not because the fingers are all thumbs.

Do you want to become a permanent winner? Then relax and take a breather. Accept the fact that there are things you cannot control.

The mood of the financial market is like the rain outside. You cannot control it. But you can take an umbrella with you when going out.

I’ll make sure your umbrella is dependable. After all, I have intelligence, albeit artificial. I can recognize all sorts of patterns and predict a trend change. And very soon I will learn how to show you resistance and support levels.

May profit, trustworthy provider & common sense be with you!

Your witty buddy, Letit

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